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individual
utility goals—could take effect in 2012 and guide investor-owned
utilities' (IOU) programs through 2020.
Itron's
scenario modeling incorporated such factors as utility programs,
stricter codes and standards, requirements for all new residential
and commercial construction to be zero net energy, the potential
for naturally occurring savings from spillover and market
transformation, and AB 1109*.
Overall
electric energy savings could range from 23,135 GWh to 31,930
GWh by 2020 under three different scenarios according to Itron's
findings. The CPUC's Energy Division staff recommended commissioners
adopt the report's mid-case forecast—a savings of 28,783
GWh by 2020. IOU programs would make up two-thirds of that
total with 19,278 GWh.
The Itron
report noted that under any of the modeled scenarios, reaching
even moderate savings requires coordinating IOU program designs
with new standards for lighting, HVAC, homes and buildings.
Moreover, annual gross savings from IOU programs will fall
significantly in the 12-year forecast's second half because
of market saturation and the forecast's dependence on today's
technology. The decline in annual savings from IOU programs
highlights a need for funding in research, development and
deployment of emerging and new technologies, the report added.
For more
information about this study or any of the products and services
Itron provides to help optimize the usage of energy and water,
please contact forecasting@itron.com.
*AB
1109 bans the sale of light bulbs that contain hazardous materials
starting in 2010. It also requires the California Energy Commission
to adopt lighting efficiency standards to cut average statewide
electrical use by at least 50 percent from 2007 levels for
indoor home lighting and at least 25 percent from 2007 levels
for indoor commercial and outdoor lighting by 2018.
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